Inflation in Ukraine Reaches New High: Eggs and Oil Hit Records.

Highest Level of Inflation in Ukraine

According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, in March 2025, the highest level of inflation since the beginning of the year was recorded in the country. Consumer prices increased by 1.5% over the month, which is twice as fast compared to the previous month, while annual inflation reached 14.6%, setting a new record.

In its report, the State Statistics Service notes that since the beginning of the year, inflation in the consumer market has amounted to 3.5%. The key driver of the overall price increase was the significant rise in food prices. In the first three months of 2025, food inflation stood at 4.2%, and on an annual basis – 17.4%.

Statistical data show that over the past year, prices for the following products have increased the most:

eggs – by 44.7% (for March – by 18.8%, which is related to seasonal factors)

sunflower oil – by 35.4% (for the month – by 1.7%)

vegetables – by 32.3% (for the month – by 1.6%)

Significant increases were also recorded for butter (31.9% for the year), bread (20.8%) and milk (19.5%). The State Statistics Service did not find any food products whose prices declined or remained unchanged over the year.

Regarding other consumer goods and services, the only categories that showed annual price declines were clothing (minus 4.2%) and footwear (minus 3.3%). In contrast, healthcare services increased by 15%, transportation – by 9.5%, communication – by 18.9%. Prices for education rose by 12.1%, and for recreation – by 1%.

Core inflation in March also accelerated to 1.4% compared to 0.7% in February. In the consumer market, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 1.7%. In addition to the significant rise in egg prices, prices for fruits, non-alcoholic beverages, sunflower oil, vegetables, processed grain products, bread, meat and meat products, milk, and butter increased by 0.6-6.0%. At the same Time, rice and lard became cheaper by 0.5%.

Prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products rose by 1.9%, which is related to the increase in tobacco product prices by 2.4%. Clothing and footwear increased in price by 13.3% in March, in particular, footwear by 13.8%, clothing by 13.0%. The cost of transport services increased by 0.2%, mainly due to the increase in train fares (by 4.4%) and passenger road transport (by 1.5%). At the same time, fuel and lubricants became cheaper by 0.9%.

It is worth noting that the National Bank of Ukraine worsened its inflation forecast for 2025 at the end of January. Instead of the expected 6.9% at the end of the year, the regulator now predicts inflation to reach 8.4%. Following the first quarter, the NBU projected inflation at 14.3%.

To curb inflationary processes and control the currency market and business expectations, the NBU raised the discount rate first to 14.5% in January and then to 15.5% in March 2025. According to the regulator's updated forecasts, inflation is expected to gradually decrease in the second half of 2025 as temporary factors such as last year's drought diminish. However, the timeliness of the rate hike remains an open question, as the effect of this measure will manifest with a delay of 9 to 18 months.