Not many of our men are hiding abroad from mobilization – the chief demographer of Ukraine.

Ukraine has lost about 10 million people due to the war, of which 4.5 million are abroad. Of this number, 66% are women. This information was provided by Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Ella Libanova during her speech at the Expert Forum 'Mental Health of the Nation, Rehabilitation of Military and Civilians during the War'.

The expert explains: 'It is not so easy to determine the losses during the war. There has been mortality, and the birth rate has also declined. I tried to calculate this. If the trends that lasted from 1991 to 2014 continued, then about 41.5 million people could have lived in Ukraine by mid-2024. According to our estimates, the population in the territories controlled by the Ukrainian government is approximately 31.5 million. That is, the direct demographic losses due to the war by mid-2024 amount to 10 million people. This is about a quarter of the entire population of Ukraine before the aggression in 2014.'

According to Ella Libanova, the biggest problem is the loss of the potential for demographic growth. Of the 4.5 million people abroad, a third are children and teenagers under 18 years old. Only 6% of them are individuals over 65 years old. Thus, the aging process has significantly intensified.

Regarding the gender imbalance due to the war, Ella Libanova says: 'No, the gender imbalance has not increased due to the war. Most of those who left are women. Why are there so many men? Because boys left until they were 18 just like girls. If we consider the working age, men make up only 22%.'

The expert notes that people should not be trusted when they say that many men capable of work and mobilization are hiding abroad. She says: 'Not many of our men are hiding from mobilization abroad.' According to her, these men could have left not from the territories controlled by the Ukrainian government, but from Crimea or Donbas.

Earlier, the Vice-Rector of the European University, Serhiy Yahodynskyi, called on the authorities to preserve the demographic potential rather than create risks of its loss.

Analysis

Ukraine has suffered significant demographic losses due to the war, losing about 10 million people. This is not only a loss of human lives but also a decrease in birth rates and emigration due to the conflict. These losses have radically affected the country's population. More than 4 million Ukrainians are abroad, and of them, 66% are women. Professor Ella Libanova emphasizes that the biggest problem is the loss of potential for demographic growth since a third of these emigrants are children and teenagers under 18 years old. Moreover, the arrival of working-age men to the conflict territory has been very limited - only 22% of the total number of emigrants. From this, it can be concluded that women are more mobile in wartime conditions. However, Ella Libanova refutes the words of those who claim that many men capable of work are fleeing abroad from mobilization. She emphasizes that a significant portion of the men who left may be residents of territories not controlled by the Ukrainian government, such as Crimea or Donbas.