Is the Devaluation of the Hryvnia Possible: Expert Gives Currency Forecast Until the End of 2025.

Former Deputy Head of the National Bank of Ukraine Oleksandr Savchenko predicts a moderate devaluation of the Hryvnia against the US dollar in the near future. The Rector of the International Institute of Business believes that the stability of the currency market is ensured by significant volumes of international financial support. According to the expert, the main factor restraining sharp fluctuations of the national currency is international assistance from Western partners. In April, the international reserves of the NBU rose to a record 46.7 billion dollars, which is an increase of 10.1% over the month. This has been possible due to incoming funds from the European Union and the World Bank, which allows the regulator to effectively smooth out currency jumps.

'The exchange rate is now formed not so much by the economy — exports, imports, emission — but rather depends on the volumes of assistance from our Western partners,' Savchenko explained. The economist emphasizes that sufficient volumes of such support are guaranteed for the current year, so the rate remains relatively stable.

Euro Exchange Rate Forecast

As for the euro exchange rate, Savchenko pointed out its dependence on the euro to dollar cross-rate in the global market. 'The situation for the US currency is slightly better now than a few weeks ago. Accordingly, in Ukraine, the euro exchange rate has rolled back from the peak levels of the end of last month,' the expert added. According to Savchenko's forecast, by the end of 2025, the devaluation of the Hryvnia to the dollar will be moderate, and the rate may reach 43 Hryvnias per dollar. At the same Time, predicting the euro exchange rate is more complicated due to the influence of geopolitical factors on the cross-rate. However, the expert does not expect significant problems in the currency market, as the main contracts in Ukraine are tied to the US dollar. The interesting point is that the stability of the currency market in Ukraine in the near future depends on international financial support and assistance from Western partners. Experts predict a moderate devaluation of the Hryvnia against the US dollar and keep the euro exchange rate stable, although it may be affected by the geopolitical situation.